The three-scenario method
The method requires no calculations — it helps put your thinking in order. Describe three ways events could unfold.
- Worst. Imagine everything went wrong. What losses would you bear — money, time, reputation, partner relationships? Do not assess probability, just honestly describe the "bottom".
- Most likely. The outcome that, by your sense of it, will most probably occur. What results would it lead to?
- Best. What happens if everything goes perfectly. This is what you will aim for.
Two questions that give the answer
Now the key part. Take the most likely scenario and ask:
- Does it lead to my goal? If the likely outcome does not move you toward what you are starting the project for, you should not enter — even if there are no fears.
- If the answer is "yes", move to the worst scenario: can I survive it? The business will not collapse, I will not lose everything? If "yes" here too — the decision can be made: you can withstand the worst, and the likely outcome leads to the goal.
Three scenarios and two questions give clarity in minutes — where there is neither data nor time for a full analysis.
I used this method back at Beeline when assessing the risks of IT projects and startups: the scale did not always allow a deep analysis, yet the go/no-go decision had to be made fast.
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FAQ
When is the three-scenario method appropriate?
When you need a quick decision under uncertainty, with no precise data and no time for complex models. For large, costly decisions it is complemented by quantitative risk assessment.
How is this different from a full risk analysis?
It is an express tool for speed and clarity. It does not replace a detailed analysis but guards against the main mistake — entering a project that even in the likely scenario does not lead to the goal, or in the worst case is fatal.
