The situation
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 33% of all seaborne oil passed in 2025, became effectively blocked: control over the passage of vessels creates serious risks for carriers. At first glance, a global crisis. But let us look at it through business continuity management (BCM) methodology.
A BCM-logic breakdown
BCM teaches you to separate the real cause of a disruption from panic. We ask simple questions:
- Is there less oil in the world? No. Global production in 2025 is about 106 million barrels a day; the largest producers (the US ~13.6m, Russia ~9.9m, Saudi Arabia ~9.5m, plus Canada, China, Kazakhstan ~1.8m) keep working.
- Has extraction become harder or more dangerous? Also no. This is about already-extracted oil — the problem is purely transport to buyers.
So it is not a resource shortage but a failure in one link of logistics — the very "bottleneck" the whole system must not depend on.
Where the reserves are
As in any continuity problem, the way out lies in pre-planned alternatives:
- the world tanker fleet numbers over 7,800 vessels — they can be redirected to new routes;
- bypass corridors exist — for example the Northern Sea Route, which carried about 37 million tonnes of cargo in 2025, mostly hydrocarbons.
Under BCM methodology the next step is to convene an operational task force with stakeholders and arrange temporary logistics routes. The principle is exactly the same as in a single company — only the scale differs.
The takeaway for business
The continuity approach works at any level — from a small company to international logistics. The main lesson: do not panic over the blocking of one channel; instead, know your "bottlenecks" in advance and keep alternative routes, suppliers and channels ready. How this is done at the company level — in "Business continuity (BCM): what it is and why".
See how resilient your business really is
13 questions, 5 minutes, free — results on screen and by email.
FAQ
What is a "bottleneck" in risk management?
It is the single link without which a process stops: one supplier, one route, one channel. BCM requires finding such points in advance and preparing alternatives for them.
Does the Hormuz logic apply to small business?
Yes. The scale differs, the principle is the same: if all sales or supply depend on one channel, you need to work out a backup in advance — otherwise its blocking stops the business.
