The situation
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 33% of all seaborne oil passed in 2025, has in effect been blocked: control over the passage of ships creates serious risks for carriers. At first glance this is a global crisis. But let us look at it through the business continuity management (BCM) methodology.
Analysis using BCM logic
BCM teaches you to separate the real cause of a disruption from panic. We ask simple questions:
- Is there less oil in the world? No. Global production in 2025 was about 106 million barrels a day. The largest producers (the USA ~13.6 million, Russia ~9.9 million, Saudi Arabia ~9.5 million, as well as Canada, China and Kazakhstan ~1.8 million) continue to operate.
- Has production become harder or more dangerous? Again, no. This is about oil that has already been produced. The problem lies only in transporting it to buyers.
So the resource is not in short supply. This is a failure in one link of logistics: exactly the “bottleneck” that a whole system should never depend on.
Where the reserves are
As with any continuity task, the way out lies in alternatives thought through in advance:
- the global tanker fleet has more than 7,800 vessels, and they can be redirected to new routes;
- there are bypass corridors, for example the Northern Sea Route, which carried about 37 million tonnes of cargo in 2025, mostly hydrocarbons.
Under BCM methodology, the next step is to set up an operational crisis team with the stakeholders involved and to organise temporary logistics routes. The principle is exactly the same as in a single company; only the scale is different.
Takeaway for business
The continuity approach works at any level, from a small company to international logistics. The main lesson: do not panic when one channel is blocked. Know your “bottlenecks” in advance and keep alternative routes, suppliers and channels ready. How this is done at company level is covered in “Business continuity (BCM): what it is and why you need it”.
Geopolitical scenarios and the BCM response
| Scenario | Impact on business | Preparation measure |
|---|---|---|
| Closure of a logistics corridor | Disrupted deliveries, higher shipping costs | Alternative routes and a stock of critical items |
| Sanctions on a supplier or software | Loss of a service or components | Register of dependencies, tested replacements |
| Currency shocks | Higher production costs, cash gaps | Financial reserve for the MTPD, contract review |
| Payment restrictions | Unable to pay partners | Backup payment channels and jurisdictions |
| A vendor leaves the market | Support for critical systems stops | An exit plan for each critical vendor |
For sites in areas exposed to drone attacks there is a separate drone strike readiness check: a site map, fire on the ground, single points of failure and the loss in roubles before and after measures.
Frequently asked questions
What is a “bottleneck” in risk management?
It is the only link without which a process stops: one supplier, one route, one channel. BCM requires you to find such points in advance and prepare alternatives for them.
Does the Strait of Hormuz logic apply to a small business?
Yes. The scale is different, but the principle is the same. If all your sales or supply depend on one channel, work out a backup channel in advance. Otherwise, if that channel is blocked, the business stops.
From the risk register to management decisions
Check whether your risks reach the people who make decisions. The dashboard shows the status on one screen; the turnkey system makes it work in practice.
